AFE Leaks Pulse

Crude Prices Crater on Iran Deal; Commonwealth Gains more Traction

Jun 15, 2026

AFE Leaks Updates
Business as usual; patched a few API query quirks that came from adding a Play/Basin tag to our wells and filters. Added Arkansas data to the database as well, and we do have some cost data, but it’s actually quite dated as nobody really drills the Fayetteville anymore (basically every regulatory filing right now is just Flywheel asking for permission to extend P&A dates).
One thing I am working on is more of a general well data page that is largely all wells in the database, and not just ones gated by having cost access. This came about due to beginning to add Canada data to the platform, so expect initial versions to roll out over the next couple of weeks. If there are any features someone wants in particular just throw me a note.
Still working from Vietnam (Da Nang now), so trying to balance the family treating our open-ended trip like a vacation every day while I carve out time to run data QC/scripts and write notes.

The tape (June 14, 9:00 pm)

WTI: $80.96, down $3.92 (−4.6%)
Brent: $83.92, down $3.41 (−3.9%)
Henry Hub: $3.05, down $0.07

The Premium Exits Through Hormuz

The market pulled the war premium back out of crude after the U.S. and Iran agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, more than 100 days after it effectively closed. Three supertankers hauling roughly 6 million barrels reportedly cleared the strait, which is the detail that makes this version more than a press release. Previous examples: The April two-week ceasefire reopened Hormuz and crushed oil, then didn’t hold; the late-May MOU got branded a “complete fabrication” by the White House the same afternoon; on June 9 the Energy Secretary said traffic was “rising very meaningfully” and the strait stayed shut.

So, we’ll see how if this one sticks.

Interested to see how many of ya’ll were hedging aggressively with the expectation that an agreement would be hammered out.

Inventories Are Still Stretched

Price fell because flow risk improved, not because the cushion came back. EIA has OECD stocks heading toward the lowest since it began tracking in 2003, on lost Gulf output and the Hormuz disruption. The slack that absorbed this shock is already drawn down, so if the reopening is slow or the deal wobbles the way the last three did, there’s materially less inventory to catch the next one. Additionally, as we’ve highlighted before, Hormuz flow is still several months away from fully resuming even with a deal signed. We’re in a much worse place when it comes to ability to respond to fresh turmoil.

A&D Just Got Harder

One thread running through our conversations the last three months is that privates have been using this pricing window to try and get out. The peace deal drives a nail in the more opportunistic price cases those processes were built on. I do think the floor on WTI is much higher than it was six months ago. But it highlights that using a geopolitical news cycle to divest has a short clock, and this one just ran out.

On the gas side, Devon is reviewing the portfolio after closing the ~$58B Coterra deal, and the Marcellus-exit chatter is getting louder. While crude deals are getting more difficult, gas-weighted Marcellus still has legs via LNG pull.

In other news, APA picked up Savant on the Alaska North Slope, another step in diversifying the base. APA has been a more or less complete disappointment in the shale era, but what they've actually built looks something like Hess: an international portfolio with a few genuinely interesting assets, including some core Permian assets. You could see someone eventually buying the whole thing and selling off the parts they don't want. The more interesting angle is a large independent folding them in for the team — actual exploration and traditional petroleum engineering experience, a skillset most L48 independents have let atrophy.

Commonwealth LNG FID

Caturus — the Kimmeridge-backed integrated gas company developing the project — confirmed 20 international banks have joined the financing for its 9.5 Mtpa export terminal in Cameron Parish, Louisiana. It follows the project’s May 15 FID and the close of $9.75B in project financing; total equity and debt commitments reached $21.25B, with Mubadala Energy (a 24.1% holder in the Caturus platform) and CPP Investments among the equity backers. Construction has started.

For the broader US LNG picture: another Gulf Coast train clears the capital hurdle, this one on an integrated wellhead-to-water model that pairs the terminal with ~280,000 net Texas acres producing 1 Bcfe/d-plus. Sovereign and pension capital funding a relatively small developer’s terminal says project-finance appetite for US export capacity is still deep, on top of the wave already in construction and startup. Net effect is another 9.5 Mtpa of firm Gulf Coast demand pull for Haynesville and associated gas, with a build timeline attached.

Costs Are Moving the Wrong Way

IndexBox has U.S. OCTG surging. We did highlight this as a risk in our Matador cost piece. Rising input costs while prices drop will stress budgets in H2.

Matador's Cheaper Foot: Drilling Deeper into Delaware Cost Drivers

AFE Leaks

May 12

Read full story

One to Watch

Gulf bypass capex. The longer-cycle signal. UAE is accelerating Fujairah capacity to route around Hormuz and Saudi’s East-West system is the template everyone’s re-reading. Every dollar into bypass pipe, storage, and port hardening lowers the ceiling on the next Hormuz premium.

Matador's Cheaper Foot: Drilling Deeper into Delaware Cost Drivers

Discussion about this post

Ready for more?

AFE Leaks Pulse

Crude Prices Crater on Iran Deal; Commonwealth Gains more Traction

The Premium Exits Through Hormuz

Inventories Are Still Stretched

A&D Just Got Harder

Commonwealth LNG FID

Costs Are Moving the Wrong Way

Matador's Cheaper Foot: Drilling Deeper into Delaware Cost Drivers

One to Watch

Links

Discussion about this post

Ready for more?