AFE Leaks Pulse + Guidance Update

Morning news plus what Q2 guidance revisions say about upstream production, capital efficiency, acquisitions, appraisal and power spending.

Aug 13, 2026

∙ Paid

August 13, 2026

AFE Leaks Notes:
Starting to feed Canada data into the database, but at the very least our initial Canada app is available in the Upstream Benchmarking module. API clients can access the backend data as well; just look at the Documentation page for the deets.

Early Thursday: WTI $81.56 (-$1.71), Brent $87.34 (-$1.64), Henry Hub prompt $2.77 (-$0.03).

Crude is down about 2% this morning on largely domestic drivers. Commercial crude inventories outside the SPR jumped 17.4 million barrels last week to 424.4 million. That is the largest weekly build since January 2023. Exports fell to 3.06 million bpd, the lowest since November 2025, while net imports climbed 1.77 million bpd. The build came straight through the trade account. Demand indicators actually held up, with gasoline drawing 1.0 million barrels and distillates finishing roughly flat.

This build landed right on top of a fourth consecutive OPEC demand cut. OPEC now sees 2026 world demand growth at just 580,000 bpd. The IEA went the exact opposite direction on balances the same day, cutting their supply forecast and putting July Middle East production 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels. They now project a 1.8 million bpd global deficit in Q3 and expect 2026 demand to contract 1.6 million bpd. The two agencies disagree by more than 2 million bpd on demand alone. That gap comes down to how much destruction each assigns to the conflict and product prices. EIA sits in the middle. They see roughly 5.5 million bpd of regional output shut in during July, with about 600,000 bpd still offline through year-end 2027 even under normalization. Their 2026 forecasts sit at $86.81 Brent and $80.88 WTI.

The physical market

Physical access is the binding constraint in the Middle East right now. A senior Iranian source told Reuters Wednesday there have been no talks on extending the US-Iran ceasefire. Tehran's position is that Washington must first return to the interim deal and define an implementation timeframe. There is nothing to extend. Attacks on shipping continued around Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb through Wednesday. That deadlock is the support under prices. It is the reason a 17.4 million barrel build only took $1.71 off WTI.

The barrels that are moving increasingly move dark. Reuters reports all recent Saudi loadings at Yanbu ran without continuous AIS signals to reduce Houthi exposure. That is widening the spread between competing export estimates. Vortexa put Saudi crude and condensate loadings at Sidi Kerir at a record 2.17 million bpd last week. Totsa offered Basrah Medium loading outside the Strait of Hormuz at close to a $10/bbl premium to Dubai quotes.

Add the Caroline Bezengi to the risk ledger. The grounded, sanctioned tanker carrying an estimated 800,000 barrels of Russian crude is now leaking onto Oman's coast. Satellite estimates put the slick above 2,000 square kilometers. Cleanup is complicated by a lack of recognized Western insurance, monsoon conditions, and an act-of-war designation.

Downstream wins

Marathon, Phillips 66, and Valero earned a combined $12.6 billion in Q2, the most since 2022, and returned $6.3 billion via dividends and buybacks. Record gasoline and diesel cracks trace directly to Hormuz disruption and attacks on Russian refining capacity. That cash is already going back into steel. Phillips 66, Kinder Morgan, and HF Sinclair reached FID on Western Gateway. It is a $5 billion, 1,300-mile, 230,000 bpd refined products system linking Texas and mid-continent supply to Arizona and California. The project includes roughly 900 miles of new pipe from Borger to Phoenix, backed mainly by 10-year take-or-pay contracts and targeting 2029 service.

Upstream - Softness in Employment Trends

Despite higher prices, there is no love for the lowly O&G employee. July oil and gas extraction employment came in at 114,600 per preliminary BLS data. That is down from 115,100 in June and the lowest since March 2022. It is a narrow extraction-only measure, but the direction is the point.

Santos shipped the first Pikka cargo. They loaded 450,000 barrels at Valdez for West Coast refiners. Phase 1 is at roughly 23,000 gross bpd with an 80,000 bpd plateau expected this quarter. New Alaskan supply into a West Coast market that Western Gateway will also serve by 2029 is worth filing away.

BLM opened a 30-day comment period on 113 Colorado parcels totaling 126,445 acres for a proposed December 2026 sale. Comments are due September 11.

Gas storage divergence

The prompt sits at $2.77 ahead of the 9:30 CT storage print, after the September contract added 1.3% Wednesday on warm forecasts. National inventories are tracking toward a decade high before winter. Texas carries a deficit to historical averages that is expected to linger into the heating season. A decade-high national number sitting on top of a below-average Texas number makes this a regional balance story. Watch the Texas side heading into the shoulder.

Sources

Q2 guidance says operators found more barrels, but not all of them were free

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